Firm Data on AI

Source: NBER (Yotzov, Barrero, Bloom, Davis et al.) · 2026-02

We survey nearly 6,000 senior business executives at US, UK, German, and Australian firms to develop new evidence on AI adoption and its effects on jobs, productivity, and output. Specifically, we ask executives about AI usage, its effects at their own firms over the past three years and, looking ahead, what they anticipate over the next three years. We find four main results. First, 69% of firms actively use AI, with higher usage rates at younger and more productive firms. Second, more than two thirds of executives regularly use AI, but their usage rate averages only 1.5 hours a week. Third, executives report little own-firm impact of AI over the last 3 years, with nine-in-ten reporting no impact on employment or productivity. Fourth, these same executives predict sizable effects over the next 3 years, predicting that AI will boost productivity at their firms by an average of 1.4%, raise output 0.8%, and cut employment 0.7%. In contrast, employees anticipate that AI will raise employment 0.5% at their firms in the next 3 years, highlighting an expectations gap between employers and employees.