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Do LLMs predict entailment based on what they memorized?

Explores whether language models make entailment decisions by recognizing memorized facts about the hypothesis rather than reasoning through the logical relationship between premise and hypothesis.

Synthesis note · 2026-02-21 · sourced from Natural Language Inference

McKenna et al. (2023) named a specific, reproducible bias in LLM entailment behavior: the attestation bias. When an LLM is asked whether premise P entails hypothesis H, its prediction is bound to the hypothesis's out-of-context truthfulness — whether H is attested in training data — rather than the conditional truth of H given P.

The mechanism is clear: if a model's training data confirms H as true (independently of any premise), the model is likely to predict entailment regardless of what P says. Conversely, if H is not attested, the model is less likely to predict entailment even when it would be correct. Entities serve as "indices" to memorized propositions — the presence of a known entity activates stored associations that override the in-context reasoning task.

The authors demonstrate this with a "random premise" experiment: replace the original premise with a random unrelated premise while keeping H constant. An ideal inference model should detect that entailment is no longer supported and predict "no entailment." LLMs instead maintain elevated entailment predictions when H is attested — demonstrating that they are responding to stored propositions about H, not to the P→H relationship.

This connects to two complementary failure modes already in the vault. Do language models actually use their encoded knowledge? shows that encoded knowledge doesn't reliably affect generation. Attestation bias is the inverse problem: memorized statements do influence generation, but in the wrong direction — they substitute for rather than support proper inference. Both failures arise from the same root: LLM generation is not governed by a clean separation between retrieved knowledge and in-context reasoning.

The practical implication: NLI benchmark performance measures a combination of reasoning and memorization that cannot be cleanly disentangled without carefully designed bias-adversarial test sets.

Inquiring lines that read this note 57

This note is a source for these research framings, grouped by the broader line of inquiry each explores. Scan the bold lines of inquiry; follow any specific question forward.

What happens to knowledge when intelligence becomes tokenized like a commodity? What explains language models' asymmetric difficulty with implicit versus explicit linguistic relations? Can prompt-based context override biases that were embedded during pretraining? Why do token-level mechanisms matter for learning to reason? Does encoded knowledge in language models actually influence their outputs? How can we prevent synthetic data from contaminating statistical inference and corpora? Do language models learn genuine understanding or just surface patterns? Is language model reasoning authentic and what causes models to reason? Can models improve accuracy without degrading reasoning quality? Why does adding new knowledge through fine-tuning degrade existing capabilities? Can reasoning scale in latent space without tokens? Why don't LLMs reliably translate capability into accurate outputs? Do language models reason like humans or mimic surface patterns? Do language models reason through causal mechanisms or semantic associations? What compositional reasoning failures limit large language models despite scale? What training dynamics and scale trigger emergence of reasoning capabilities? What enables genuine semantic understanding in language models? What causes reasoning models to fail or wander off track? Is reasoning capability latent in base models or created by post-training? How should systems decide whether to retrieve or reason alone?

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Original note title

llm entailment predictions are bound to hypothesis attestation rather than premise-hypothesis inference